Easing growth momentum expected to continue in largest OECD economies
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, continue to point to easing growth momentum in the United States and the euro area as a whole, including in Germany.
This month’s assessment remains unchanged for all other major OECD economies and the OECD area as a whole. In France and in Canada, the CLIs continue to point to stable growth momentum. This is also the case for the United Kingdom, albeit around historically low trend growth rates, and despite large margins of error due to Brexit uncertainty. In Japan and Italy, the outlook continues to point to stabilising growth momentum.
Among major emerging economies, the CLIs continue to point to stable growth momentum in China (for the industrial sector) and Brazil. In India, the signs of easing growth momentum flagged in last month’s assessment have intensified, and similar indications are now emerging in Russia.
Stable growth momentum in the OECD area