Iron ore headed toward the highest close since May as China’s renewed focus on supply-side reform lifted expectations for the country’s steel market. 

Futures of the steel-making ingredient were on course for a second weekly gain as prices rose back above $96 a tonne. Beijing’s top leaders this week vowed to curb outdated industrial capacity, which could boost prices of raw materials due to the potential positive impact for steel-mill margins. 

Analysts at Citigroup Inc. see the signals from China as a likely precursor for so-called supply-side reform 2.0. However, compared with 2015-18, they see a less aggressive capacity cut, and a limited follow-up of demand measures, according to a research note. 

Iron ore has lost about 15 per cent over the past year as the economy in China — the world’s biggest consumer — continues to struggle. Demand prospects have also been dampened by ample supplies from Australia and Brazil, the top shippers.

Goldman Sachs Inc. analysts said in a research note dated Thursday that although they remain cautious of any suggested quick fixes to overcapacity in the 1-billion-tonne a year steel market, iron ore prices can be supported at $95-100 a tonne in the near term.

“For steel production and iron ore consumption to move lower, either domestic demand or exports need to weaken, or a mandatory production cut needs to be enforced,” said Aurelia Waltham, Goldman’s ferrous analyst, who stuck with an end-of-year forecast of $90 a tonne. “We believe that supply growth caps upside, making a price above $100 a tonne unsustainable.” 

Goldman flagged that lower iron ore prices are resulting in an import surge from India, bringing that nation’s net exports to zero and creating potential upside to its 2026 forecast. Goldman’s previous estimate had assumed India wouldn’t become a net importer until the end of 2026 when prices could drop to $80 a tonne.

Singapore iron ore futures rose 0.2 per cent to $96.75 a tonne at 10:22 a.m. local time, on track for a 2.2 per cent weekly gain, while yuan-priced futures on the Dalian exchange edged up. Steel contracts in Shanghai advanced. 

Meanwhile, copper eased lower along with most industrial metals, after stronger-than-expected US jobs data dialled back expectations for an imminent interest-rate cut. Prices, which hit the highest since late-March on Wednesday, were down 0.4 per cent to $9,913 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminium dropped 0.2 per cent. 

Source: The Hindu Business Line 

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