29-12-2018

Global Iron Ore Supply Expected to Grow in 2019 - Mysteel

Global iron ore supply to grow in 2019 against previous year, as per forecast made by Mysteel – a leading market intelligence service provider on the Chinese metals and mining industry. Out of increase in iron ore supply forecasted, 18.9 MnT will come from Brazil, 2.9 MnT from Australia and 4 MnT from China. India’s iron ore supply is expected to augment by around 10 MnT in 2019. In 2018, global iron ore production is expected to have dropped by 3.9 MnT Y-o-Y amid production of low grade ore and widening price gap between high and low grade iron ore.

How will iron ore supply be from major suppliers?

1. Australia’s iron ore output expected to move up around 22 MnT– Australia’s iron ore production in CY’18 is expected to reach 894 MnT compared to 872.3 MnT in previous year. Increased supplies would mainly come from BHP Billiton’s 7.2 MnT and Roy Hill’s 10.5 MnT. In 2019, Australian production tends to be more stable, with total production expected to be 897 MnT, a slight increase of 3 MnT against 2018.

2. Brazil iron ore production increased by around 9.1 MnT– Brazil’s iron ore output in 2018 is expected to increase by 9.1 MnT to 428.6 MnT. Vale’s annual production is forecasted to increase by 23 MnT in 2018. Minas Rio suspension in March caused an overall decline in Brazil’s production. Brazilian iron ore supply is expected to increase in 2019, with the continued growth of Vale production and the restoration of Minas Rio as the main source of growth in Brazil. Samarco’s follow-up lawsuit has not been resolved, and the time to resume production continues to be delayed or until 2020.

3. Russia iron ore production to remain stable – In 2018, the Russian iron ore will be mostly stable. Further in 2019, production is expected to remain around 100 MnT in 2019.

4. China iron ore production is expected to move up in 2019 – Iron ore concentrate in 2018 is expected to be 249.85 MnT, down 13.95 MnT from 2017. However in 2019, output is expected to ramp up to 254 MnT in 2019.

5. India may add around 10 MnT supply in 2019 – Indian iron ore production may move up by 10 MnT in 2019 as many leases in Odisha are likely to raise production to utilize their EC limits and before 2020 auctions. However volumes from Goa and NMDC Donimalai mines remain a matter of concern. Indian iron ore production may remain close to 192 MnT in CY18 against 202 MnT in CY17, as per SteelMint.

 

How will seaborne iron ore supply be in 2019?

The global supply structure in 2019 shows the characteristics of continuously expanded proportion of high-quality iron ore. What are ramp up plans of world’s major miners’ for next year and how will the seaborne iron ore supply be in 2019?

Will rising iron ore supplies put prices under pressure?

Global iron ore supply is likely to augment by around 50 MnT in 2019. It will be interesting to see that amid increasing supplies, will prices also come under pressure?

Source: Press Release

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