A total of 24 key crude and natural gas projects are expected to start operations in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) region by 2025, with Russia and Kazakhstan driving production in the region, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company’s report states that Rosneft Oil Company is expected to lead the FSU in terms of operatorship of planned projects, as it is responsible for nine, of which eight will be conventional crude projects. According to the latest forecast, key planned projects in the region are expected to contribute 2.1 million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) to global crude production in 2025, and 10.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to global gas production.
Russia accounts for most of the planned oil and gas production in the FSU, with Gazprom contributing the highest production levels in the region by 2025. According to the GlobalData’s latest estimates, the company’s key planned assets are expected to contribute 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) of production in 2025, followed by Rosneft Oil Company and Lukoil Oil Company with 693.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboed) and 224.2 mboed respectively.
Anna Belova, GlobalData’s Senior Analyst covering Oil & Gas, explains: “Over the past two years of low crude prices, Russian production continued growing to new records aided by ruble devaluation, which reduced dollar-denominated costs, the progressive taxation system, and fiscal incentives available to select new fields. These production drivers will remain relevant in the near term, contributing to stable production until 2020.”
In terms of capital expenditure related to planned projects, GlobalData estimates Russia will lead the region with US$31.7 billion during the 2016–2025 period, of which US$6.0 billion will be spent on the Kovyktinskoye project.
Belova concludes: “Conventional onshore production will remain the main source of Russian crude and natural gas over the forecast period, with smaller contributions made by shelf projects in the Caspian, Pechora, and Okhotsk seas.”
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