18-04-2016

Dry bulk FFA market: It might as well be spring…

DB

After last week’s moves upwards on capesizes, the paper market opened the week with a pause.

Volumes remain good with pockets of volatility but ultimately the paper knows physical is running the show. The fact that the April contract is pricing in only a small move up for the balance of the month suggested that caution could continue.

The physical market slowed further despite reports of charterers having to pay up for prompt positions in the Atlantic. The Pacific felt quieter too which had a negative impact on paper.

Though busy the cape market lacked impetus with rates hovering rather than flying. However by midweek the tone was firmer again with a mini bull run giving us impressive gains on most periods down the curve. The 4TC index even made it over $5,000 which in turn pushed May up to $6,400 while Q4 made it to $9,000.

Panamaxes also saw levels looking to move south in light volume as physical began to cool off and sentiment softened. But after edging lower, we saw some renewed support and sellers scaled back to suggest a more positive tone.

The positive tone persisted with T/A and F/H business underpinning the optimism. There is however still an element of caution around and as a result the carry remains rather conservative with prompts still very flat.

After starting the session with a weaker feel, supramax paper also turned it around as we saw better bids flourishing to push the market up. Index was unexciting but with more positivity around the prompt pushed up followed by Q3 – 4 and Cal 17.

The small ships continued to gather momentum as levels were bid up on Thursday, May and June rallying before offers thinned out. Another positive index – though no more than expected – saw Q3 – 4 trading to a high of $5,800.

Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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