29-06-2017

Dry Bulk FFA: Supramax Market Riding On a High

fis

Supramax Index Weekly

Resistance – 8,950, 9,794, 10,034

Support –7,412 6,934, 6,680, 5,769

The Supramax index remains within its range and the index is now testing the 200 period MA at USD 8,280.

The stochastic remains oversold, but below 30, indicating the trend remains bearish within its range, with technical resistance at USD 8,950.

A bearish candle at the 200 period MA would suggest downside continuation, targeting the recent low at USD 7,412, and potentially the USD 6,934 range support.

Market buyers looking for early entry should look to the daily chart for market pullbacks that fail to close below USD 7,412. A higher low would imply downside momentum is weakening, making the USD 8,950 a viable target.

Supramax Q3 17 Daily

Resistance– 9,215, 9,500, 9,920

Support –, 8,310, 7,357

Upside moves in the Q3 Supramax failed to hold above the USD 9,215 resistance, and we are now seeing a technical pullback. Key support remains at USD 8,310, as this would keep the potential inverse head and shoulders pattern in play.

The stochastic remains in overbought territory, however a close above USD 9,350 would be considered a neckline break for the inverse H&S pattern and suggest we could make fresh highs above the USD 9,920 resistance.

Failure to close above the USD 9,322 level would create a lower high, and put technical sellers on alert for lower pricing, targeting the USD 8,310 support level.

Technically bullish, the Q3 needs to produce a close above the USD 9,350 level if it is continue in this upward trend.

Supramax Cal 18 Daily

Resistance – 8,940, 9150, 9,610

Support –, 8,495, 8,070, 7,800

The technical resistance in the Cal 18 futures held last week at USD 8,940, and we are now seeing a pullback in price.

A close below USD 8,495 would imply the upward move is weakening, and a close below USD 8,070 would suggest that upward moves are unlikely to break the USD 8,940 technical resistance in the near term. Market sellers should be looking for a lower high to develop at this point.

Market pullbacks that hold above the USD 8,390 would indicate underlying strength in the market, targeting USD 8,880. A close above this level would complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern and target recent highs at USD 9,610.

Technically bullish, but within a corrective phase, caution on a close below USD 8,070 as this could be an early sign of a trend transition from bullish to bearish.

Supramax Q3 V Cal 18 Daily

Resistance- 380, 516, 779

Support – 245, 142 (-43), (- 215)

The USD 380 resistance level was broken last week and the Q3 v Cal 18 spread has entered into a corrective phase.

Although the USD 380 level did not act as a support, the higher low that formed at USD 245 has kept the trend bias bullish.

Failure to make a new high above USD 516 would be regarded as technically bearish, and market longs should look to tighten risk. Likewise a close below USD 245 would also attract technical sellers to the market.

If a new high is produced, market buyers should look to the stochastic to ensure this is also making a fresh high, as there is the possibility of it producing a bearish divergence. Which if produced should have longs looking to tighten risk.

Source- FIS

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