The Index has recently made a new high, if we hold above the USD 10,517 support then it would suggest that the current move is basing. The stochastic is showing a bear setup (this has near term bullish implications) and this remains in play above USD 10,223 on the weekly chart.
Like the index, the Feb and Q2 contracts are also showing bear setups. Technically these are regarded as near term bullish but tend to result in bearish divergences and signal a longer term corrective phase is due.
The Cal 19 futures is now on leg 5 as it has recently made a new high. We also see a bearish divergence in play. Like the bear setup this is a warning and not a signal to be traded on its own.
Resistance – 11,899, 12,128, 12,508
Support – 10,517, 9,997, 9,121
From a technical point of view the Index is neutral within a corrective phase. We remain above the 200 period MA, suggesting the longer-term trend is still in bullish territory.
Downside moves that fail to trade below the recent low of USD 10,517 would imply the index is basing, having recently made a new high. A close above the recent high of USD 11,899 would have bullish implications going forward, providing a new low has not been made.
Technical support is at USD 10,517 – USD 9,121, with longer term support at USD 8,019. A new low below USD 9,517 would indicate there is more to come within the current correction.
Note – The weekly chart is showing a bearish set up (stochastic making new lows whilst price action hasn’t), these often signaling a final upward move is due before a more major correction. A bearish set up tends to produce a bearish divergence on fresh market highs.
Resistance – 11,585, 11,708, 12,110
Support – 11,060, 10,765, 10,663
Near term price action is currently below both the 8 and 21 period EMA’s but above the 34 period EMA and the 55 period MA. From a technical perspective this would imply that that although the longer-term trend remains in bull territory, it is in a corrective phase.
The stochastic is showing a bearish setup (bullish hidden divergence). From a technical perspective this would indicate that downside momentum is slowing, and higher prices could soon follow. However, it is known as a bearish setup as upward moves tend to result (not always) in a bearish divergence and signal a longer-term correction could follow. This need to be supported by other technical signals.
A close above the 8 and 21 period EMA’s (with the 8 EMA above the 21 period EMA) would be considered as technically bullish. Fibonacci resistance is at USD 11,585 – USD 11.708 and longer-term resistance is at USD 12,110.
Downside moves that trade below USD 11,060 would have bearish connotations going forward. However, the bear setup remains in play above the USD 10,765 support.
Resistance – 13,240, 13,518, 13,746
Support – 12,797, 12,315, 11,346
Last week’s bearish divergence resulted in a pullback to the 8 period EMA. Medium and longer – term moving averages remain in bullish territory, and price action is above the short period EMA’s.
Like the February futures the Q2 futures are showing a bearish setup. From a technical perspective this is regarded as being short term bullish in the market. However, if the market makes a new high, then there is a high probability that a second bearish divergence will appear. Based on the stochastic being at 39, whilst the futures are currently USD 160 below the recent market high.
A close below USD 12,797 would suggest that there is more downside within the recent correction. Note the bear setup remans in play above USD 12,315.
Resistance – 11,724, 11,917, 12,110
Support – 11,100, 10,650, 10,470
The Cal 19 futures appear to have entered into leg 5 of this wave and has now made a new market high. Technically this trend is bullish, however if this is a leg 5 impulse wave then it would suggest that a longer-term correction is due. We also note that the stochastic is not achieving new highs and has created a bearish divergence. Not a sell signal, it does warn of weakening momentum.
Fibonacci resistance is between USD 11,816 and USD 12,258, with downside support at USD 11,100. A close below this level from an Elliott Wave perspective would suggest that a corrective wave has begun, and the current bull cycle has completed.
Source: Freight Investors Services (FIS)Previous Next