20-06-2016

Dry bulk FFA market: They think it’s all over…

DCS

And they might be right. As the Euros grind towards the end of the first week with a combination of hooliganism, regulatory over-reaction and occasional flashes of brilliance, there were plenty of parallels with the freight market.

Would the breakaway dry freight brokers really tear up their agreements and go their own way? Would the Baltic manage to placate the voices opposing its sale? Would the market spark itself into mid-summer life?

As it turned out, the freight market was neither as dramatic nor as thrilling as the action on the pitch – even more patchy in fact.

The capesize market was a game of two halves – busy physical but the same action not being felt on paper. Falls in the Asian market were quickly stabilised as European buyers entered the market but despite the activity in both basins, rates were fixing at or close to last done. This was enough for some buyers who lent some support.

As the week ended there was a gradual drift down as physical came under pressure with the outlook far from rosy.

Panamaxes were the unfancied dark horse – the Northern Ireland if you will – with small gains across the curve and fresh Pacific enquiry and US Gulf optimism driving the market.

The support eventually spilled over into some more aggressive buying and the tone remained cautiously optimistic. However week’s end saw the market quieten with levels very range bound once again. Despite a negative index, support remains around last done, but with more required from physical market if we are to see the current range broken.

Supramax paper finally saw some positivity from the recent interest creeping in down the bid side of the curve this week. Q3 and Q4 saw continued the bid support but with a lack of offers down the curve.

A relatively quiet day on Thursday – but this might be down to the football – with the majority of the curve unchanged. July was seen trading a touch higher and September saw some activity with Cal 17 also seeing some better numbers.

Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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