At The Asia Dry Bulk Cargo Summit 2025, Mr. Ashok Jain, Director, Diamond Shipbrokers (a division of Samsara Shipping Pvt Ltd), offered a candid analysis of the shifting forces shaping global dry bulk shipping. Speaking to a full audience, Mr. Jain broke down the various trends now influencing trade patterns across key commodities.

“The sector is going through multiple changes simultaneously,” he said. His presentation covered everything from iron ore and coal to grain, with a focus on how technological shifts, geopolitics, and environmental policies are reshaping global trade routes.

Iron Ore: Shifting Dependencies

Iron ore remains the leading dry bulk commodity, accounting for 61% of the 5.74 billion metric tons shipped by sea last year. Of that, nearly 77% was imported by China, with most supplies coming from Australia and Brazil.

But that heavy reliance is starting to change. Mr. Jain pointed to Guinea’s Simandou project, which is set to bring major new supply online from 2026. Meanwhile, more steelmakers are switching to electric arc furnaces, which rely on scrap instead of raw ore, a shift that could gradually reduce global iron ore demand.

Thermal Coal: A Gradual Phase-Down

Thermal coal, which makes up roughly 31% of dry bulk trade, is losing ground as renewable energy expands worldwide. In India, for instance, more than half of the country’s electricity capacity now comes from green sources.

“Thermal coal imports are being steadily replaced by domestic production and renewables,” Mr. Jain explained, noting that similar trends are visible in China and elsewhere. As electric vehicles become more widespread and environmental regulations tighten, the outlook for thermal coal remains weak in the long run.

Coking Coal: India Broadens Supply Base

Coking coal, crucial for steel production, is also under pressure as cleaner steelmaking methods gain traction. Still, India continues to be one of the few bright spots, with steel output expected to grow further. To meet rising demand, India is diversifying its sources, importing more from Russia, Mozambique, and the U.S., in addition to its long-time supplier Australia.

“New trade routes are emerging as demand shifts and geopolitical factors come into play,” Mr. Jain observed. Policy changes in regions like the European Union are adding further complexity to global supply chains.

Grain Trade: Holding Steady, but China Adjusts

Grain trade has stayed relatively stable compared to other segments. Major exporters such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Europe continue to serve global markets, with China still playing a key role as a major buyer. However, Mr. Jain noted that China is quietly increasing its own grain production, particularly in wheat and soybeans, which could eventually reduce its reliance on imports.

The Road Ahead

As he wrapped up his talk, Mr. Jain pointed to several major forces likely to define the sector’s direction in the years ahead:

The continued global expansion of renewable energy
India’s rising domestic coal output and green energy initiatives
Cleaner steel production reducing iron ore and coking coal demand
Ongoing geopolitical shifts, particularly U.S. efforts to counterbalance China’s economic rise
Slowing population growth, which may weigh on future commodity demand
“Dry bulk shipping isn’t just about supply and demand anymore,” Mr. Jain concluded. “Policy decisions, climate goals, and demographic shifts are now just as important. The companies that adapt will be the ones that succeed.”

Mr. Jain’s wide-ranging presentation offered attendees at The Asia Dry Bulk Cargo Summit 2025 a comprehensive look at a sector undergoing significant transformation. 

Source: TST News Desk 

#theshippingtribune #latestnews #shippingnews #dailynews #Maritimenews #shippingindustry #news #media #newsupdate #maritime #shippingnewsworldwide