The World Steel Association cut its global steel demand forecast for 2026 on Monday, citing weaker consumption in China and disruptions from the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The industry body now projects global steel demand will decline 0.1% in 2026, down from its April forecast of 0.3% growth.

Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of World Steel’s economics committee, said the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than expected.

The association also reduced its 2027 demand growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.2%.

Steel demand in China is projected to fall 2% this year as the country’s property downturn continues for longer than the association had anticipated.

The outlook for Europe has also weakened. The association now expects steel demand in the European Union and Britain to fall 0.3% in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for growth of 1.3%, as a recovery in construction proves slower and more uneven than expected.

The slowdown is more pronounced in the Gulf, where steel demand is forecast to fall 11% in 2026 before rebounding 11.3% in 2027.

"What we observe (in the Gulf) is not the destruction of demand but its deferral, as project awards, construction starts and financing decisions are pushed back while the security situation remains unresolved," Hidalgo de Calcerrada said.

He added that steel demand in the Gulf should recover strongly once the uncertainty clears, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and supply chains normalize.

The association said India remains the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, with demand forecast to grow 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.

Source: Investing.com

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